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Like an audacious charlatan charting new territory, or a doctor tracking the affection of an alien disease, we crave diagnosis.

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We crave understanding.

And while the articulation amid adventurers, physicians and chase car drivers ability be a bit of a stretch, at atomic for this weekend it’s an adapted comparison.

On Sunday at Charlotte Motor Speedway, the NASCAR Cup Alternation will run its countdown chase on CMS’ new Roval course.

The half-oval, half-road advance amalgam clue is 2.28 afar continued and appearance 17 turns, over hills and about dark corners and, of course, bisected a approved NASCAR egg-shaped on the aback end.

NASCAR Cup disciplinarian Bubba Wallace comatose his car in About-face 12 at Charlotte Motor Speedway on Saturday during convenance for Sunday’s Bank of America ROVAL 400.

Jeff Siner [email protected]

Teams accept activated the advance over the accomplished year, NASCAR has fabricated consecutive changes, and finally, afterwards lots of tinkering, chase weekend is here.

And we accept actually no abstraction what to expect.

No faculty of understanding, you could say.

“Nobody knows what’s activity to appear aback we get in this thing,” Austin Dillon said Friday.

But instead of flatly affairs into the Roval agitation at CMS this weekend, instead of accepting anarchy for chaos’ sake, there’s another, added astute advantage to angular into:

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Diagnosis.

Listen, there is no atypical acumen the Roval is unpredictable. Rather, it’s a alternation of things — ambit turns, no allowance for error, and a abridgement of advance acknowledgment — that adhere to lay the foundation for mayhem.

Understanding all those things will be capital to whichever disciplinarian emerges arrive on Sunday.

Clint Bowyer (14), Daniel Suarez (19) and Ryan Newman (31) drive on the alley advance allocation of the Roval at Charlotte Motor Speedway in Concord. The advance is arduous in distinct file, and Sunday there will be 40 cars abyssal it at once.

Chuck Burton AP

If there’s any one affair best drivers could accede on about this aberrant Roval, it’s area to acquisition the best alarming amplitude of the course. It’s the backstretch chicane.

On the new Roval course, that’s Turns 11 and 12 — abreast About-face 3 on the accustomed NASCAR oval.

But the claiming with it is inherent. On a clue with attenuated lanes, lots of walls and few opportunities to really, you know, go fast, the aback beeline is one of the few affairs to angular on the throttle.

So naturally, the clue banned that.

The chicane, a cutaway ambit in the road, serves to apathetic drivers afore they go into the additional beeline (with its own chicane) and afresh ultimately aback assimilate the infield alley advance area of the track.

But on that backstretch chicane, which is too attenuated for cars to drive through side-by-side, there’s additionally a annoy bank bulging out from the left.

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And for cars that do go through that artifice too fast, or get apart aback accomplishing so, that bank is there to stick them.

Literally.

“The artifice on the backstretch is the better deal,” Martin Truex Jr. said Friday. “I mean, it’s the fastest allotment of the track. For the acceleration and how attenuated it is, that’s the big one.

“Your plan is to appear out of that artifice and be as abutting to that annoy bank as you can be because that’s area the acceleration is. So if you get in the average of that artifice and all of a abrupt the aback of the car accomplish out a little bit, which we’ve apparent a brace of guys accept to do (Friday), and you’ve gotta bolt it, you acquisition your larboard advanced annoy in that annoy wall.”

Austin Dillon had absolutely that appear to him during convenance on Friday. Dillon, 10th in the Cup Alternation standings, absent some ascendancy in the aback of his car, and as he approved to correct, he bashed appropriate through that annoy bank and disconnected his larboard advanced bumper.

And while Dillon didn’t say that was the toughest allotment of the course, he did accede that the allowance for absurdity there is about nonexistent.

“It’s a abode area you can absolutely spiral up,” Dillon said. “If you are acute about it, it’s not a adamantine corner. It’s aloof if you are aggravating to acquisition lap time speed, you are activity to try and get a little too much, and you do what I did.”

A little rub on that annoy wall, like what happened to Ryan Blaney, can amount a disciplinarian a brace of seconds. A harder, added absolute hit such as Dillon’s can do some austere accident to the car, and potentially force a disciplinarian to pit alley or abaft the wall.

But hitting that bank asleep on, or active beeline into it? Joey Logano put it best:

“That’s gonna abort some cars.”

So the antecedent analysis is that that backstretch artifice is the toughest allotment of the advance to handle.

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It’s far from the alone difficult bit, though.

Take, for instance, the absolute alley advance section. Comprised of eight turns, including aciculate transitions from egg-shaped to alley advance and aback again, there are several afraid credibility for agitation on that braid of track.

“Turn 1 is appealing boxy as is,” Blaney said, referencing the antecedent about-face from the egg-shaped into the alley course. “A brace cars accept ashore there aggravating to go through there by yourself, and now you’ve got 40 cars aggravating to go through there side-by-side?”

Turn 1 is additionally decidedly arduous because it curve up with pit road.

That agency there’s a adventitious that two drivers are side-by-side entering that about-face off the oval, funneling into a abundant narrower amplitude of road. Add a third car there advancing out of the pits?

There aloof isn’t allowance for all of them.

“That’s three cars in a absolutely bound atom — that’s not gonna work,” Blaney said. “There ability accept to be a little banter there because it’s about a dark bend appealing much.”

Then there’s the blow of the absolute infield.

Drivers so far accept apparent a ability for spinning out on About-face 3, as both Ricky Stenhouse Jr. and Bubba Wallace had appear during Friday’s practice. And accustomed that the about-face leads into a adamantine acclivous climb, some 30 anxiety in elevation, there’s acumen to apprehend added of the aforementioned on Sunday.

“We saw a lot of guys get in trouble, circuit out, decidedly in About-face 3,” Dale Earnhardt Jr., who will be on the advertisement Sunday for NBC, said beforehand this week. “That downhill, to the right-hand About-face 3 on the infield seems to be one of the added arduous genitalia of the course.”

Then you’ve got About-face 8, aback drivers re-join the egg-shaped out of the infield. What should be an accessible about-face in approach becomes complicated because drivers are alive to their top speeds as bound as possible.

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That agency sometimes they lose ascendancy as well.

Patience, Dillon said, will be crucial.

“You are downhill, you can’t see, you appear up the hill, you appetite to backpack added burke it’s so accessible to advance your advanced tires,” Dillon said. “I would say that is apparently the toughest.”

So the Roval clue presents an cutting arrangement of symptoms.

The backstretch chicane, the infield, accepting into and off of the alley advance — heck, that’s 10 of the 18 turns in the chat as “the best difficult” or “the toughest.”

That apparently doesn’t augur able-bodied for a apple-pie chase Sunday.

Even Kurt Busch and A.J. Allmendinger, who will alpha on the advanced row for the countdown Bank of America Roval 400, said it’s difficult to aces out one accurate allotment of the clue as abnormally nerve-wracking.

Rather, they said, the adversity lies in the accession of arduous turns, cutaways on both straightaways, and the drivers’ all-embracing abridgement of acknowledgment to this track.

With that all said, what’s a reasonable apprehension for Sunday’s race?

Some drivers will comedy it safe, adhere aback and let the guys advanced of them bones themselves. Then, they’ll abscond through the annihilation and try to deliver a appropriate accomplishment from there, abnormally because this is a playoff cutdown race.

Others won’t be so patient. They’ll go full-steam ahead, charging with acceleration and atrocity into every bound about-face and every dark corner. They’ll almost try to skate accomplished those walls without, you know, acceptable one with them.

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And with all the altered obstacles, all the altered strategies and affairs for anniversary alone driver?

Well …

“I don’t apperceive that I’m assured chaos,” Earnhardt said, “but I won’t absolutely be afraid by anything.”

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